Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics (Aug 2020)
Multi-Parametric Earthquake Forecasting the New Madrid From Electromagnetic Coupling Between Solar Corona and Earth System Precursors
Abstract
Forecasting large earthquakes M ≥ 6.0 with satellite monitoring and Radio Direction Finding techniques of Electro-Magnetic (EM) precursors associated with earthquakes are possible. International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (www.ievpc.org) consider phenomena driving earthquakes within a framework of strong solar EM coupling with the entire Earth system, through EM induction driving ionosphere-air-earth currents. Catastrophic earthquakes have repeatedly stricken the New Madrid Seismic Zone during the last 4 major solar hibernation cycles since 1400 AD. Research suggests another cycle of strong magnitude 6.0 to 8.0 earthquakes in the New Madrid region during the upcoming (~2021-2057), solar minimum period. The 1811–12 earthquakes, occurred in the midst of Dalton Solar Minimum (1793-1830), causing many types of ground failures including lateral spreading and ground subsidence by soil liquefaction across the Mississippi River flood plain and tributaries over 15,000km2. Studies by USGS and damage assessments by FEMA estimate damages to infrastructure approaching $600 billion. Common denominators between seismic precursors associated with a solar EM driver are found by analyzing data on ionization phenomena in areas under tectonic stress such as: Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR); Total Electron Content (TEC); atmospheric effects, such as Jet Stream and other meteorological phenomena related to earthquake clouds and lights.
