Non-Motherhood between Obligation and Choice: Statistical Analysis Based on Permutation Tests of Spontaneous and Induced Abortion Rates in the Italian Context

Abstract

(1) Background: This paper aims to examine two relevant phenomena in the context of public health: spontaneous abortion (SA) and induced abortion (IA). SA is one of the most common complications of pregnancies; IA is a conscious choice that is made by the mother/couple. (2) Methods: Permutation tests were applied to SA and IA standardized rates detected by ISTAT (2016–2020). The NPC test, chosen for its optimal properties, was applied to compare different Italian territorial divisions (stratifying for year and age classes of women) and analyze the trend of years by stochastic ordering. (3) Results: Only for SA, there are significant differences among the three territorial divisions: the South records higher SA standardized rates than the North and the Center; the rates of IA are similar. Relating to distinct women age classes, the SA standardized rates do not show significant differences among the three analyzed geographical areas; different results are highlighted for IA. Stochastic ordering shows that only the IA standardized rates are characterized by a significant monotonous decreasing trend over the years. (4) Conclusion: The SA phenomenon has shown a decreasing trend that could be justified by the progress of science. For IA, we can certainly say that the general decrease in the phenomenon is due to the greater use of contraceptive methods that help to prevent unwanted pregnancies.

Keywords

• biostatistics
• clinical epidemiology
• public health
• medical statistics
• permutation test
• standardized rates