Assessing radioiodine therapy long-term outcomes in differentiated thyroid cancer using nomograms

Abstract

Abstract This study explored the role of radioiodine therapy (RAI) in low-risk thyroid cancer patients and examined the disease-specific survival (DSS) rates in a large cohort of differentiated thyroid cancer patients (DTC). We obtained patient data from SEER database. Patients who underwent total thyroidectomy were included and categorized into three groups based on histology: classical papillary thyroid carcinoma (C-PTC), follicular type variant carcinoma (FV-PTC), and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). Patients with distant metastasis, tumor size ≥ 200 mm, chemotherapy, or any type of radiation other than RAI were also excluded. A nomogram was developed and tested for discrimination and calibration. In total, 96,532 thyroid cancer cases were examined, including 59,460 C-PTC, 31,583 FV-PTC, and 5,489 FTC cases. Age > 65 years and male sex were correlated with lower survival rates across the subtypes. In addition, extrathyroidal extension had a worse survival effect in patients with FTC. DSS rates were compared between patients who received RAI and those who did not, with a 3% difference in C-PTC (94% vs. 91%, p < 0.001), 2% in FV-PTC (92% vs. 90%, p < 0.001), and 1% in FTC (89% vs. 88%, p = 0.084) at 15 years. The nomograms for long-term DSS showed high discriminatory abilities with C-indices of 0.815, 0.805, and 0.781 for C-PTC, FV-PTC, and FTC, respectively. The developed nomogram can be used in the treatment plan for patients with DTC. Our study emphasizes the prognostic factors for DTC and highlights the need for personalized treatment plans based on individual risk profiles.

Keywords

• Nomogram
• Papillary thyroid cancer
• Personalized medicine
• Radioactive iodine
• Survival rate
• Thyroid neoplasms