Seismic Risk Assessment for the City of Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract

An earthquake is the most destructive natural phenomenon, with its sudden onset and rapid spread impacting large areas. Among the various geohazards, seismic ones dominate in terms of their social and economic effects on human life and the urban environment. In the present study, a deterministic earthquake ground motion scenario for the city of Sofia (the capital of Bulgaria) is presented. The earthquake risk posed to Sofia is quantified by considering the city’s seismic context, which contributes to its hazard and risk. The assessment of seismic hazards and the generation of earthquake scenarios make up the first step of seismic risk evaluations, as risk reduction strategies can only be developed with a better understanding of these threats. Risk assessment and its associated management comprise the most effective approach to estimating the impact of seismic hazards on the city of Sofia, which exhibits high seismic activity. Our findings provide a basis for local governments to review their susceptibility and preparedness. The consideration of earthquake scenarios in the creation of policies for seismic risk reduction will allow us to focus on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on the activities following these disasters.

Keywords

• geohazard
• seismic hazard
• seismic risk
• building stock
• city of Sofia
• Bulgaria