Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Three-Dimensional Stability of Highway Shallow Landslide in Southeast Tibet Based on TRIGRS and Scoops3D Coupling Model

Abstract

National Highway G559 is the first highway in Southeast Tibet into Motuo County, which has not only greatly improved the difficult situation of local roads, but also promoted the economic development of Tibet. However, rainfall-induced shallow landslides occur frequently along the Bomi–Motuo section, which seriously affects the safe operation and construction work of the highway. Therefore, it is urgent to carry out geological disaster assessment and zoning along the highway. Based on remote-sensing interpretation and field investigation, the distribution characteristics and sliding-prone rock mass of shallow landslides along the Bomi–Motuo Highway were identified. Three-dimensional stability analysis of regional landslides along the Bomi-Motuo Highway under different rainfall scenarios was carried out based on the TRIGRS and Scoops3D coupled model (T-S model). The temporal and spatial distribution of potential rainfall landslides in this area is effectively predicted, and the reliability of the predicted results is also evaluated. The results show that: (1) The slope structure along the highway is mainly composed of loose gravel soil on the upper part and a strong weathering layer of bedrock on the lower part. The sliding surface is mostly a circular and plane type, and the main failure types are creep–tensile failure and flexural–tensile failure. (2) Based on the T-S coupling model, it is predicted that the potential landslide along the Bomi–Motuo Highway in the natural state is scattered. The distribution area of extremely unstable and unstable areas accounts for 4.92% of the total area. In the case of extreme rainfall once in a hundred years, the proportion of instability area (Fs LRclass (Fs LRclass = 78.80%) was significantly better than that of the one-dimensional TRIGRS model (%LRclass = 45.50%) under a 12 h rainfall scenario. The research results have important reference significance for risk identification and disaster reduction along the G559 Bomi–Motuo Highway.

Keywords

• rainfall-induced shallow landslide
• TRIGRS
• Scoops3D
• three-dimensional stability
• space–time prediction