Climate-driven distribution changes for Bashania fargesii in the Qinling Mountains and its implication for panda conservation

Abstract

Climate change has triggered a series of global-scale environmental problems, posing a great threat to the sustainable development of forests throughout the world. Bashania fargesii is the primary bamboo species consumed by giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Qinling Mountains. As global warming continues to intensify, how the distribution of B. fargesii changes will determine the survival of giant pandas in the future. We therefore predicted and compared the potential distribution of B. fargesii in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province in the 2050 s and 2070 s by using integrated Species distribution models (SDMs) constructed based on 88 occurrence records of B. fargesii and 12 selected environmental variables. The results showed that precipitation seasonality was the key environmental variable affecting the distribution of B. fargesii, and the suitable areas for B. fargesii would be lost under future climate scenarios. More importantly, under RCP8.5, habitat loss would be extremely dramatic in the 2070 s for B. fargesii. Our study indicated that climate change might have significant impacts on the future distribution of the bamboo B. fargesii, resulting in giant pandas lacking sufficient suitable habitats in the winter season. Routine monitoring of bamboo forests is necessary to strengthen the preservation of giant pandas and biodiversity in the Qinling Mountains.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Bashania fargesii
• Giant panda
• Qinling
• MigClim