CHALLANGES AND PROSPECTS FOR TOMATO PRODUCTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC VARIATIONS: EVIDNECES FROM KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA-PAKISTAN

Abstract

Climate change is the momentous and persisting change in the world’s temperature, precipitation, humidity, and other climatic variables. This study, therefore estimated the impact of climatic variations on tomato productivity across agro ecological zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Panel data for 28 years (1991-2018) across the six districts of the agro ecological was used due to availability of data on tomato productivity and climatic variables. Yield of tomato, area, maximum temperature and rainfall were included in the final estimated model. The results indicate that the average maximum temperature and average maximum temperature square have a significant impact on tomato yield. Average maximum temperature has positive coefficient while the average maximum temperature square has a negative coefficient. This demonstrates that, at first, the tomato yield increases as the temperature rises. It reaches the maximum at the critical temperature (34.95ºC) but shows a decline once the temperature rises from the critical value.

Keywords

• Tomato
• Climate change
• Panel data
• Fixed effects model
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Pakistan