Large tropical cyclone track forecast errors of global numerical weather prediction models in western North Pacific basin

Abstract

Although tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors (TFEs) of operational warning centres have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still many cases with large TFEs. The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data are used to study the possible reasons for the large TFE cases and to compare the performance of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Forty-four TCs in the western North Pacific during the period 2007–2014 with TFEs (+24 to +120 h) larger than the 75th percentile of the annual error distribution (with a total of 93 cases) are identified.Four categories of situations are found to be associated with large TFEs. These include the interaction of the outer structure of the TC with tropical weather systems, the intensity of the TC, the extension of the subtropical high (SH) and the interaction with the westerly trough. The crucial factor of each category attributed to the large TFE is discussed.Among the TIGGE model predictions, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office generally have a smaller TFE. The performance of different models in different situations is discussed.

Keywords

• Consensus
• Numerical weather prediction
• Forecast error
• Tropical cyclones
• Track prediction
• TIGGE