Species distribution modeling and conservation assessment of the northwestern Argentinian highland papayas under global change scenarios

Abstract

Wild species related to crops are a source of genes for improving crop tolerance of biotic and abiotic stresses. Vasconcellea quercifolia and V. glandulosa are wild relatives of papaya (Carica papaya). They are the southernmost-distributed members of the genus and have traits related to tolerance of temperature and precipitation seasonality. Climate and land-use changes, however, are threatening their persistence. Our objectives were to identify priority ex situ conservation areas based on the potential distribution of both species in northwestern Argentina under global change scenarios. The potential distribution of Vasconcellea spp. was modeled using occurrence data and five bioclimatic non-correlated variables. Distribution range shifts were assessed in two climate change scenarios for the year 2050, considering land-use changes. Gap analysis methodology was applied, and conservation priorities were identified by an integrated approach of conservation strategies. Vasconcellea quercifolia has a wider habitat suitability area than V. glandulosa, and the effect of land- use change on distribution was higher for the former than latter species. Conversely, climate change would be more negative on V. glandulosa than V. quercifolia, and the synergic effect of both climate and land-use changes would be higher for V. quercifolia than V. glandulosa. According to gap analysis, both Vasconcellea spp. are high priority species for further germplasm collection. We identified priority areas for ex situ conservation.

Keywords

• Vasconcellea quercifolia
• V. glandulosa
• crop wild relatives
• climate change
• land-use change
• Maxent