Assessing mortality risk in Type 2 Diabetes patients with prolonged ASCVD risk factors: the inclusive Poh-Ai predictive scoring system with CAC Score integration

Abstract

Abstract Purpose To enhance the predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) and prolonged Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk factors. Despite the utility of the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) score in assessing cardiovascular risk, its capacity to predict all-cause mortality remains limited. Methods A retrospective cohort study included 1929 asymptomatic T2DM patients with ASCVD risk factors, aged 40–80. Variables encompassed demographic attributes, clinical parameters, CAC scores, comorbidities, and medication usage. Factors predicting all-cause mortality were selected to create a predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups. Results In our analysis of all-cause mortality in T2DM patients with extended ASCVD risk factors over 5 years, we identified significant risk factors, their adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), and scores: e.g., CAC score > 1000 (aHR: 1.57, score: 2), CAC score 401–1000 (aHR: 2.05, score: 2), and more. These factors strongly predict all-cause mortality, with varying risk groups (e.g., very low-risk: 2.0%, very high-risk: 24.0%). Significant differences in 5-year overall survival rates were observed among these groups (log-rank test < 0.001). Conclusion The Poh-Ai Predictive Scoring System excels in forecasting mortality and cardiovascular events in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and extended ASCVD risk factors.

Keywords

• Type 2 diabetes
• Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
• All-cause mortality
• Predictive scoring system
• Coronary artery calcium