A Multifactorial Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Combined With Periodic and Non-Periodic Features - A Case Study of Qingdao, China

Abstract

In this paper, the load time-series measured from 2016 to 2018 in Qingdao is investigated in order to make a prediction more accurately by using an artificial neural network model combined with some regular and irregular features. The results of spectral analysis show that several periodic variations in diurnal, semidiurnal and weekly frequencies are prominent, and considered as critical parts of predictior variables of the training and test sets in this forecasting model. However, a significant decline of load happens during the national statutory festivals in China, and is more obvious with the longer holidays, which should be taken into account as abnormal conditions. Moreover, both temperatuer and hummity filtered out by mutual information method are also added as two essential weather factors to improve the prediction accuracy, especially in the hot summer. Finally, the comparative results of five different experiments in term of mean absolute percent error show that the forecasting model combined with all periodic and non-periodic factors outperforms the others with one single or a few of factors. This multifactorial model, taking fully account of internal charateristics of load data and external important influences, is proved more suitable to predict the load trend in Qingdao.

Keywords

• Short-term load forcasting
• artificial neural network
• periodic and non-periodic factors
• mean absolute percent error