An evolutionary parsimonious approach to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration

Abstract

Abstract The reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an essential component in hydrological and ecological processes. The objective of this research is to develop an explicit model to estimate ETo only using commonly measurable meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, air temperature, and wind speed, where the measurements corresponding to solar radiation are omitted. The model was generated using Genetic Programming (GP), evaluated, and validated with reference data ETo using FAO56-PM. This reference data was obtained from different climates (warm-temperate and arid-warm) and latitudes, acquired from CIMIS stations in the state of California, United States, and the El Porvenir station in the state of Coahuila, located in north-central Mexico. After applying the proposed methodology, a total of 3754 results were generated, demonstrating a significant improvement in the estimation of ETo compared to the Hargreaves–Samani model. A particularly noteworthy result revealed that our approach outperformed the Hargreaves–Samani model in the training phase by 27%, and in the testing phase by 16%, on average. In order to achieve a generalized model, a dataset encompassing meteorological stations in two different climates (warm-temperate and arid-warm) and various latitudes was utilized. The obtained outcome unveiled a highly effective model for estimating ETo in diverse climatic contexts, eliminating the need for local adjustments. This model significantly surpassed the Hargreaves–Samani model, exhibiting superior performance by 17% during the training phase and 18% during the testing phase. These results conclusively underscore the capability of our approach to provide more accurate and reliable ETo estimates. These results conclusively underscore the capability of our approach to provide more accurate and reliable ETo estimates. Finally, to validate the model, four different datasets with climates similar to those used for model creation (warm-temperate, warm-arid) and different latitudes were employed. The validation stage results clearly indicate the superiority of our reference evapotranspiration ETo11 model over the Hargreaves–Samani model by 51% in warm-temperate climates. For the dataset with arid-warm climate, our model continued to show satisfactory results, surpassing the Hargreaves–Samani model by 8%. GP emerges as an innovative and effective alternative for simplified model development. This approach introduces a novel paradigm that facilitates the efficient development of models, standing out for its simplicity and effectiveness in generating solutions.