Assessing Risks on China’s Natural Gas Supply under Carbon Peaking Policies from Foreign–Domestic Perspectives

Abstract

China’s natural gas supply has been challenged in the past few years by non-traditional risks such as trading conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the country’s own emission policy. To ensure energy security and supply, conducting an up-to-date risk analysis of China’s natural gas supply status is crucial. This research utilized the Fuzzy-AHP method to compose a risk index and assessed the key links within China’s natural gas supply chain from the import side to the domestic side. The results indicate that (a) for China’s gas import, the most influential risks are the correlated dependence risk, international relation risk, and supplier internal stability risk. (b) While the dependence risk and transport risk have decreased sharply in the past decade, the import risk is still China’s major concern on natural gas supply. (c) Emissions-peaking and carbon neutrality targets are potential challenges, which the country would possibly face in the near future.

Keywords

• natural gas risk
• Fuzzy-AHP
• natural gas supply of China