A Novel Fractional Forecasting Model for Time Dependent Real World Cases

Abstract

The grey modelling in the prediction of time series has been one of the interesting study fields recently due to its efficiency and convenience. Fractional grey models, on the other hand, have become preferable, despite the difficulty in calculations, since they give more effective results than standard models. Difficulties in fractional accumulation and difference calculations have begun to be overcome thanks to new definitions and theorems made in recent years. The new trend in grey modelling is to compose models that are more useful than the previous ones and give results with less error. In this paper, a new grey model derived from the conformable fractional order is defined and it is shown that more effective estimates are made compared to the models created in recent years. The verification of the method is shown with real data set. The results show that the proposed conformable fractional grey model is more effective than the existing models.

Keywords

• grey systems
• least square method
• nonresponse
• conformable fractional calculus
• fractional grey model
• ECFGM model