How did high temperature extremes in southern Xinjiang, China induce the repaid rise in jujube futures prices in the summer of 2021?

Abstract

In the summer of 2021, southern Xinjiang, China, experienced a temporary period of high temperature extremes. Because of this weather event, jujube futures prices rose by more than 50% in a short time. To clarify the influence mechanism of these two events, we investigated the current status of jujube farming and collected investors’ online comments. We analysed these comments specifically using textual analysis tools, such as co-word networks. Results showed that the concerns of investors about the reduction in jujube production triggered by high temperature extremes were the primary reason for the rapid rise in jujube futures prices. Especially in combination with the cultivation density of jujube and their adaptability to the growing environment, a new understanding can be obtained. That is to say, when a crop is excessively densely cultivated in a region and is highly sensitive to a meteorological variable anomaly at a certain growth stage, a less destructive local extreme weather event could induce severe panic among investors regarding production reduction and thus influence the normal changes in futures price. In response to the impact mechanisms revealed in this study, we proposed policy recommendations, such as strengthening the degree of crop damage disclosure and designing weather futures derivatives, to address similar situations in the future. This study not only fills the gap in the research on the impact paths of high temperature extremes on jujube futures prices but also has a reference value for securing the stability of futures prices of related agricultural products in the future.

Keywords

• Jujube futures prices
• High temperature extremes
• Co-word networks
• Market hot topics
• Southern Xinjiang