Power policy quantification based on PMC index model and its application in load forecasting

Abstract

Policy has a direct impact on power system load.In order to fully explore the relationship between policy factors and load, and improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a quantitative method of power policy based on policy modeling consistency (PMC) index was proposed and it was applied to load forecasting.Firstly, the PMC evaluation system of electric power field was established, and then the PMC index of power policy text was obtained by text mining technology.Finally, the load forecasting model based on long shrot term memory was constructed.The quantitative index of power policy, weather, date and other influencing factors were input into the model, and compared with the model without considering policy factors.The experiment shows that the load forecasting model with policy factors achieves good results.After adding policy quantitative data, the error mean absolute percentage error of load forecasting model is reduced from 1.67 to 0.98, and mean absolute error is reduced from 28.97 to 19.68, which indicates that PMC model has a certain ability of policy quantification.

Keywords

• power policy;PMC;policy quantification;evaluation model