Statistical Analysis on Determinant Factors Associated with Time to Death of HIV/TB Co-Infected Patients Under HAART at Debre Tabor Referral Hospital: An Application of Accelerated Failure Time-Shared Frailty Models

Abstract

Hailegebrael Birhan, Kenaw Derebe, Setegn Muche, Bezanesh Melese Department of Statistics, Debre Tabor University Faculty of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Tabor, Amhara, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Hailegebrael Birhan Tel [phone]Email [email protected]: Human immune virus/tuberculosis co-infection in one’s immune system potentiates each other and hastening the weakening of the host’s immunological capabilities while growing active TB, which will increase susceptibility to primary contamination, re-contamination, and/or reactivation for sufferers with latent TB. The goal of this study was to identify determinant factors associated with the survival time to death of HIV/TB co-infected adult patients under HAART at Debre Tabor referral hospital.Methods: A retrospective follow-up analysis was undertaken for 243 HIV/TB co-infected patients who were receiving ART treatment and had follow-ups between January 2014 and December 2019. To compare the survival experiences of different patient groups, the Log rank test was performed. The Weibull accelerated failure time gamma shared frailty model was used to find determinants of HIV/TB co-infected patients’ survival time.Results: Among HIV/TB co-infected patients, 87 (35.39%) died of whom 77 (88.5%) patients were females. The Weibull AFT gamma shared frailty model showed that sex, baseline age, adherence status, educational status of respondents, functional status, WHO clinical stage, baseline hemoglobin and type of TB were among the potential determinants of survival time of HIV/TB co-infected patients. Furthermore, the findings of this study demonstrated that there is a clustering impact on patient time to death that results from the residency of HIV/TB co-infected patients’ survival time.Conclusion and Recommendation: The majority of patients reside in rural area, have poor adherence to treatment, and have low CD4 cell counts. Educational status, WHO clinical stages, adherence status, and hemoglobin levels of patients are all important determinants of HIV/TB co-infected patients’ survival. As a result, to improve the survival of HIV/TB co-infected patients at the start of and during some stages of anti-TB treatment, the concerned body, FMOH, in collaboration with Regional Health Bureau, should emphasize the importance of following treatment for HIV/TB co-infected patients with poor adherence status, advanced WHO clinical stages, and a low CD4+ count.Keywords: Weibull, accelerated failure time gamma shared frailty model, survival time, human immune virus/tuberculosis co-infection

Keywords

• weibull
• accelerated failure time gamma shared frailty model
• survival time
• human immune virus /tuberculosis co-infection.