Extreme Value Analysis of Tide Gauge Record at the Port of Busan, South Korea

Abstract

This article conducts an extreme value analysis (EVA) of hourly tide gauge measurements at Busan, South Korea, from 1960 onwards to understand the influence of typhoon-driven surges and predicted tides that super-elevate ocean still water levels (SWLs) at Busan. The impact of the 2003 super-typhoon “Maemi” dominates the records, super-elevating the SWL above mean sea level (MSL) by 1403 mm, equating to a recurrence interval of 98 years, eclipsing the second highest measured extreme in August 1960, with a return level of around 16 years. The sensitivity testing of the random timing of high tides and typhoon storm surges reveals several near misses in recent history, where water levels attained at the Busan tide gauge could have surpassed the records set during the “Maemi” event. This paper explores the omnipresent increasing risk of continuously increasing sea level coupled with oceanic inundation associated with extreme phenomena. By integrating sea level projections (IPCC AR6), the result of the EVA provides important resources for coastal planning and engineering design purposes at Busan.

Keywords

• tide gauge measurements
• extreme value analysis