Changes in building climate zones over China based on high-resolution regional climate projections

Abstract

Based on the up-to-date observations and five sets of high-resolution climate projections under RCP4.5 over East Asia using a regional climate model, this study defines building climate zones over China and assesses their past and future changes according to an established climate classification scheme. The five-model ensemble captures the observed general distribution of climate zones, with a distinct latitudinal pattern over the densely populated eastern China, a subarctic zone in the western mountains including the Tibetan Plateau and a cool dry zone in the Tarim and Turpan basins; large disparities are found in northwestern China due to warm and dry biases. Observational data identifies a recent northward shift of most climate zones in eastern China and a shrinking of the subarctic climate zones over the Tibetan Plateau, which caused a building climate zone change for 18% of the country’s land area. As the warming continues in the future, the five-model ensemble projects additional climate zone changes influencing 43% and 55% of the country by mid- and late-century, respectively. In addition, the total area of the subarctic zone is projected to decrease from 16.6% of the country in present-day climate to 9.2% and 7.4% in the mid- and late-century, respectively, and that of the hot or very-hot climate zone is projected to expand from 4.2% to 9.1% and 11.3%, respectively. These changes should be taken into consideration in long-term development planning related to urbanization, energy efficiency, and environmental sustainability.

Keywords

• climate change
• building climate zone
• climate classification
• regional climate model
• China