Research on Agricultural Product Price Prediction Based on Improved PSO-GA

Abstract

The accurate prediction of scallion prices can not only optimize supply chain management and help related practitioners and consumers to make more reasonable purchasing decisions, but also provide guidance for farmers’ planting choices, thus enhancing market efficiency and promoting the sustainable development of the whole industry. This study adopts the idea of decomposition–denoising–aggregation, using three decomposition and denoising techniques combined with three single prediction models to form a base model. Various base models are divided into different combinations based on whether the computational structure is the same or not, and the optimal weights of the combinations are determined by using the improved particle swarm optimization–genetic algorithm (PSO-GA) optimization algorithm in different combinations. The experimental results show that the scallion price in Shandong Province from 2014 to 2023 shows an overall upward trend, and there is a cyclical and seasonal fluctuation pattern of “high in winter and low in summer”; the semi-heterogeneous-PSO-GA model reduces the MAPE by 49.03% and improves the directional accuracy by 41.52%, compared to the optimal single prediction model, ARIMA. In summary, the combined model has the most accurate prediction and strong robustness, which can provide ideas and references for the difficult problem of determining the optimal weights of the combined model in the field of predicting the prices of agricultural products.

Keywords

• optimization
• PSO-GA
• forecast combination
• semi-heterogeneous combination
• agricultural commodity price
• Shandong scallion