Development of software tools based on multi-agent modeling and implemented in the new generation geographic information system for solving epidemiological problems

Abstract

The aim of the study — demonstration of the capabilities of new generation geographic information system software and agent-based modeling for solving epidemiological problems (on the example of the spread of measles in a metropolis).Materials and methods. Examples of the use of thematic layers and the functionality of the geoinformation platform, as well as the developed multi-agent model of measles spread in the megalopolis, are given. The measles spread model is presented as following three independent sub-models or nested models: behavior model, infection model, infectious process model. The modularity and independence of the sub-models allow the useof the necessary statistical and clinical data, both directly related to the studied disease and demographic indicators, which are analyzed and stored in the thematic layers of the platform.Results. The developed software tools allow visualizing, analyzing and short-term forecasting of the spread of the disease in the study area, with the ability to generate reports, which can be a useful and relevant addition to the daily work of specialists, contribute to the improvement and deepening of practical skills and abilities, in accordance with the types and tasks of professional activities, as well as expand opportunities for assistance in management decision making.

Keywords

• mathematical modeling
• agent-based model
• geographic information systems
• forecasting
• visualization
• spatial analysis
• epidemiological tasks
• epidemic process
• infectious process
• measles
• management decisions