The dynamics of monkeypox disease under ψ–Hilfer fractional derivative: Application to real data

Abstract

The mathematical model for monkeypox infection using the ψ–Hilfer fractional derivative is presented in this study. The integer order formulation is extended to the fractional order system by employing the ψ–Hilfer fractional derivative. The fractional order model analysis is provided. We investigate the model’s local asymptotical stability when R01, the global asymptotical stability result is displayed. We parameterize the model using recently reported cases of monkeypox infection in the United States. We calculated the basic reproduction using the estimated data and found it to be R0≈0.7121. We investigate the sensitivity of the monkeypox infection model and find the parameters that are sensitive R0. In general, we offer a numerical approach, and then for the monkeypox model, we present detailed findings. Some graphical outcomes for disease control in the United States are shown.

Keywords

• USA data
• ψ-Hilfer derivative
• Stability
• Numerical simulation