Biogeografía predictiva: técnicas de modelamiento de distribución de especies y su aplicación en el impacto del cambio climático

Abstract

Species distribution modeling is presented as an analytical tool for biogeography and the study of climate change impact on biodiversity. Key modeling concepts and applications are reviewed; the maximum entropy principle is described as well as its implementation in the Maxent software. Lastly, two demonstrative examples of species modeling are presented using two plant species: Pycnophyllum spathulatum (Caryophyllaceae) and Prosopis pallida (Fabaceae). Bothe species were modeled using current climate data and under a future climatic change scenario based on RCP8.5 to examine the potential impact of global warming on the species’ distribution.

Keywords

• modelamiento
• análisis espacial
• MaxEnt
• cambio climático
• biogeografía