Using Multi-Factor Analysis to Predict Urban Flood Depth Based on Naive Bayes

Abstract

With global warming, the number of extreme weather events will increase. This scenario, combined with accelerating urbanization, increases the likelihood of urban flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the characteristics of flooded areas caused by rainstorms, especially the flood depth. We applied the Naive Bayes theory to construct a model (NB model) to predict urban flood depth here in Zhengzhou. The model used 11 factors that affect the extent of flooding—rainfall, duration of rainfall, peak rainfall, the proportion of roads, woodlands, grasslands, water bodies and building, permeability, catchment area, and slope. The forecast depth of flooding from the NB model under different rainfall conditions was used to draw an urban inundation map by ArcGIS software. The results show that the probability and degree of urban flooding in Zhengzhou increases significantly after a return period of once every two years, and the flooded areas mainly occurred in older urban areas. The average root mean square error of prediction results was 0.062, which verifies the applicability and validity of our model in the depth prediction of urban floods. Our findings suggest the NB model as a feasible approach to predict urban flood depth.

Keywords

• causes of the flood
• different return periods
• multiple factors analysis
• Naïve Bayes
• urban flooded prediction