Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees

Abstract

To keep global warming below 1.5 °C has become a challenging task. The Paris Agreement aims at achieving net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the second half of this century. The objective of this study is to identify the changes needed in the technologies and energy consumption pattern in Thailand’s energy sector in order to achieve the 1.5 °C global climate goal. Multiple scenarios are drawn to consider different CO2 emission taxes, penetration of renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and nuclear power. The AIM/Enduse model is used to quantify Thailand’s 1.5 °C climate goal. Results suggest that CO2 emission taxes of US$500 – US$1,000/tCO2 would be a significant policy instrument to foster the CO2 emission reduction. The CCS technology plays a key role to abate higher amounts of CO2 emissions in the power sector. Moreover, electric vehicle (EV) and biofuel usage in the transport sector show relevant opportunities to lower CO2 emissions. These technologies reveal challenging tasks in the case of Thailand in order to reduce CO2 emissions. The 1.5 degree climate target is feasible for Thailand; however, uncertainties remain. The uncertainties include the adoption of CCS technology, costs of EV and the reliability of renewable energy supply.

Keywords

• global warming
• co2 emissions mitigation
• 1.5 °c
• aim/enduse
• thailand