SHORT TERM FORECASTING OF SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS IN BAGHDAD

Abstract

Water quality control is an important protection issue. The analysis of the water quality parameters and the prediction of their changes in future, are important in the planning for water pollution control program. This analysis and prediction are the important steps and functions that the environmental engineer must perform. In this study, time series analysis was applied to model a short term forecasting for the minimum and the maximum values for both raw and produced water of Sulfate concentrations at seven water treatment plants serving Baghdad city (Karkh, Sharq Dijlah, Karama, Wathba, Qadisiya, Dora, and Rasheed). Holt-Winters' method was used for the modeling. Three years (2001-2003) were used for building the model and the year (2004) was used for the verification, to check the model acceptability. Comparisons by (t-test) and (F-test) between means and variances of the observed concentrations and these generated by the Holt-Winters' model had reflected the applicability of this model. Hence, in future for operation purposes, it can be use for forecasting Sulfate concentrations. Visual Basic Application (VBA) software was built for this short-term forecasting model. This software was built in away, which allows an automatic updating of the model parameters. Adding additional observed data usually performs the updating of such model