Earthquake prediction from China's mobile gravity data

Abstract

The relation between plate tectonics and earthquake evolution is analyzed systematically on the basis of 1998–2010 absolute and relative gravity data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China. Most earthquakes originated in the plate boundary or within the fault zone. Tectonic deformation was most intense and exhibited discontinuity within the tectonically active fault zone because of the differential movement; the stress accumulation produced an abrupt gravity change, which was further enhanced by the earthquake. The gravity data from mainland China since 2000 obviously reflected five major earthquakes (Ms > 7), all of which were better reflected than before 2000. Regional gravity anomalies and a gravity gradient change were observed in the area around the epicenter about 2 or 3 years before the earthquake occurred, suggesting that gravity change may be a seismic precursor. Furthermore, in this study, the medium-term predictions of the Ms7.3 Yutian, Ms8.0 Wenchuan, and Ms7.0 Lushan earthquakes are analytically presented and evaluated, especially to estimate location of earthquake.

Keywords

• Chinese mainland
• Gravity change
• Tectonic activity
• Seismic precursor
• Medium-term earthquake prediction
• Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONC)