Wildfire Threshold Detection and Progression Monitoring Using an Improved Radar Vegetation Index in California

Abstract

To address the recent increase in wildfire severity and incidence, as well as the subsequent financial and physical costs, forest managers and wildland firefighting agencies rely on remotely sensed products for better decision-making and mitigation efforts. To address the remote sensing needs of these agencies, which include high spatial resolution, immunity to atmospheric and solar illumination effects, and day/night capabilities, the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is under investigation for application in current and upcoming systems for all phases of a wildfire. Focusing on the active phase, a method for monitoring wildfire activity is presented based on changes in the radar vegetation index (RVI). L-band backscatter measurements from NASA/JPL’s UAVSAR instrument are used to obtain RVI images on multiple dates during the 2020 Bobcat (located in Southern CA, USA) and Hennessey (located in Northern CA, USA) fires and the 2021 Caldor (located in the Sierra Nevada region of CA, USA) fire. Changes in the RVI between measurement dates of a single fire are then compared to indicators of fire activity such as ancillary GIS-based burn extent perimeters and the Landsat 8-based difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR). An RVI-based wildfire “burn” detector/index is then developed by thresholding the RVI change. A combination of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and F1 scores for this detector are used to derive change detection thresholds at varying spatial resolutions. Six repeat-track UAVSAR lines over the 2020 fires are used to determine appropriate threshold values, and the performance is subsequently investigated for the 2021 Caldor fire. The results show good performance for the Bobcat and Hennessey fires at 100 m resolution, with optimum probability of detections of 67.89% and 71.98%, F1 scores of 0.6865 and 0.7309, and Matthews correlation coefficients of 0.5863 and 0.6207, respectively, with an overall increase in performance for all metrics as spatial resolution becomes coarser. The results for pixels identified as “burned” compare well with other fire indicators such as soil burn severity, known progression maps, and post-fire agency publications. Good performance is also observed for the Caldor fire where the percentage of pixels identified as burned within the known fire perimeters ranges from 37.87% at ~5 m resolution to 88.02% at 500 m resolution, with a general increase in performance as spatial resolution increases. All detections for Caldor show dense collections of burned pixels within the known perimeters, while pixels identified as burned that lie outside of the know perimeters have a sparse spatial distribution similar to noise that decreases as spatial resolution is degraded. The Caldor results also align well with other fire indicators such as soil burn severity and vegetation disturbance.

Keywords

• radar vegetation index
• UAVSAR
• synthetic aperture radar
• change detection
• wildfires