Menentukan Besaran Dukungan Pemerintah dan Dampaknya Bagi Atraktivitas Proyek Infrastruktur Berbasis Kerja Sama Pemerintah-Swasta

Abstract

To encourage private financing for infrastructure development, the Government of Indonesia has embarked upon a policy to provide supports for public infrastructure projects implemented under public-private partnership (PPP) scheme. These supports include guarantee and viability gap funding (VGF) that each represents contingent and non-contingent liability for the Government. The issues of interest that have never been discussed elsewhere are types and quanta of support required to attract private sector interest for a risky PPP project. This paper attempts to fill this gap of knowledge by offering a mathematical model that combines Monte Carlo Simulation and cumulative prospect theory (CPT) and insights into government support decision problems. This model was tested on a build-operate-transfer toll road project under different scenarios of cash flow expectations and variances. As demonstrated, a pro-forma viable project can be found unattractive if evaluated under the CPT framework and requires some support to make it attractive. This model enables the guarantee and VGF to be assessed, evaluated, and compared and obtains the most feasible support. It has also been shown that the required VGF increases while the value of guarantee does not necessarily increase with the project risk as the option theory may predict.

Keywords

• Public-private partnership
• infrastructure
• guarantee
• viability gap funding