Modelling time series of industrial production index

Abstract

Aim of this work is modelling index industrial performance. In work will be constructed model on base results from business tendency surveys. Business tendency surveys open opportunity for various hypotheses (e.g. that participants be subject to inertia and estimate future according to actual situation). Problem will by examined on variously time delay (0 as far as 6 months). Results from these models will be confronted with results gained by using other method, for example autoregression analysis and Box-Jenkins methodology.

Keywords

• trend
• cyclical component
• stepwise regression
• stationary
• autoregression