Measuring and analyzing the impact of public consumer and investment spending on Iraqi unemployment: an applied study on the Iraqi economy for the period (2004-2021)

Abstract

The research aims to try to analyze the reality of public spending, both consumption and investment, and the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq and to find out its causes during the period (2004-2021), and then explain the impact of public spending on the unemployment rate in Iraq by relying on the analytical method first and then following a standard approach. The research reached a number of standard results, the most important of which is the existence of an inverse and significant long-term relationship between public spending and the unemployment rate at a statistical significance of 5%, as the unemployment rate will decrease at a rate of (-40.4%) when public spending increases by one billion dinars, with the presence of an inverse and significant long-term relationship. Between public spending and the unemployment rate at a statistical significance of 5%, as the unemployment rate will decrease at a rate of (-0.43%). When investment spending rises by one billion dinars, in addition to the existence of an inverse and significant long-term relationship between operating spending and the unemployment rate at a statistical significance of 5%, where The unemployment rate will decrease by (0.63%) when investment spending rises by one billion dinars. The research concluded with a set of recommendations, perhaps the most important of which are: The Iraqi government should follow a policy of correcting the structure of public spending by reducing the level of consumer spending and raising the level of investment spending, which contributes to increasing production and productivity, which is reflected in an increase in the level of opportunities.

Keywords

• Public spending, unemployment, Iraqi economy, autoregressive model.