Scenario Selection for Land Use Planning Purposes around “Seveso” Establishments

Abstract

The protection of the population and the environment around Seveso establishments at risk of major accidents asks for a sound basis in the approach to Land Use Planning (LUP). In particular, the selection of adequate accident scenarios is a critical issue. This study proposes a validated procedure aimed at the systematic identification of reference accident scenarios for LUP purposes. A draft table of accident scenarios is generated, based upon an improved version of the MIMAH methodology (originally developed within the EC FP6 ARAMIS project). The draft table is then reviewed and validated by simplified HazOp analysis and other relevant techniques. Possible accident scenarios are then assessed for LUP relevance against criteria accounting for expected severity, frequency and time scale of scenarios. The influence of prevention and mitigation barriers is also taken into account. The proposed procedure is demonstrated by its application to a LNG regasification terminal.