Uncertainty estimation of hydrological modelling using gridded precipitation as model inputs in the Gandaki River Basin

Abstract

Study Region: Four subbasins in the Gandaki River Basin in the southern Himalayan region. Study Focus: In the southern Himalayan region, gridded precipitation datasets are often used to complement sparse gauge network observations in hydrological modelling for water resource assessment. However, the applicability and uncertainty of using these datasets in hydrological modelling remain to be evaluated. In this study, nine high spatial resolution gridded precipitation datasets were used to force a widely used hydrological model to simulate the daily runoff at four hydrological stations in this region. The accuracy of these datasets was evaluated, and the model calibration results and modelling uncertainty were analyzed. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Our analysis revealed large differences among the nine gridded precipitation datasets, and most datasets underestimated the annual precipitation in the low-elevation regions and overestimated that in the high Himalayas. Furthermore, through the adjustments of model parameters, the underestimations of precipitation by gridded datasets were compensated for by the overestimation of glacial melt. Therefore, the model performance was better, and the model uncertainty was lower in basins with higher glacial coverage. Notably, our findings indicated that the performances of gridded precipitation datasets were heterogeneous and that their direct use in hydrological modelling may result in unreasonable hydrological process variables; thus, these datasets should be evaluated and used with caution in water resource assessments in Himalayan regions.

Keywords

• HBV model
• Himalayan basins
• Gridded precipitation
• Accuracy evaluation
• Model uncertainty