Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Models for Storm Tide Forecasting in the Venice Lagoon

Abstract

Venice and its lagoon represent an extraordinary architectural, artistic and cultural heritage. However, due to the combination of astronomical and meteorological causes, as well as by the conformation of the sea basin, the city and its lagoon are frequently affected by high tides that have caused significant damage over the centuries. Therefore, a proper prediction of the tide level, especially storm surges, is an essential task for the protection of Venice and its lagoon. The aim of this study is to provide a prediction of storm tide events based on nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) neural network models. Therefore, the developed model could act as a reliable tool for the MOSE system management, which will protect Venice from high waters.

Keywords

• tide prediction
• storm tide
• artificial neural network
• NARX
• Venice Lagoon
• MoSE