Maximum Entropy Niche-Based Modeling for Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitats of a Traditional Medicinal Plant (<i>Rheum nanum</i>) in Asia under Climate Change Conditions

Abstract

Rheum nanum, a perennial herb, is a famous traditional Chinese medicinal plant that has great value in modern medicine. In order to determine the potential distribution of R. nanum in Asia, we specifically developed the potential distribution maps for three periods (current, 2050s: 2041–2060, and 2070s: 2061–2080) using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, and these were based on the current and future climate data under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). To predict the potential impacts of global warming, we measured the area of suitable habitats, habitat suitability changes, and habitat core changes. We found that bio16 (i.e., the precipitation of the wettest quarter) and bio1 (i.e., the annual mean temperature) were the most important climate factors that influenced the distribution of R. nanum. The areas of high suitable habitats (HH) and middle suitable habitats (MH) in the current period were 156,284.7 ± 0.99 km2 and 361,875.0 ± 3.61 km2, respectively. The areas of HH and MH in 2070RCP6.0 were 27,309.0 ± 0.35 km2 and 123,750 ± 2.36 km2, respectively. The ranges of 82.0–90.3° E, 43.8–46.5° N were the mostly degraded areas of the 2050s and 2070s, and RCP6.0 had a larger decrease in habitable area than that found in RCP2.6. All the HH cores shifted south, and the shift distance of HH in 2070RCP6.0 was 115.65 km. This study provides a feasible approach for efficiently utilizing low-number occurrences, and presents an important attempt at predicting the potential distribution of species based on a small sample size. This may improve our understanding of the impacts of global warming on plant distribution and could be useful for relevant agricultural decision-making.

Keywords

• geographic distribution
• suitable habitat
• <i>Rheum nanum</i>
• MaxEnt
• ArcGIS
• range shifts