Assessment of flood damage to agricultural crops under climate change scenarios using MRI-AGCM outputs in the Solo River basin of Indonesia

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural crops is an essential part of flood-risk management and adaptation measures. However, the quantitative impact of flood damage on agricultural crops under climate change is still not clearly understood. It is thus crucial to investigate flood damage to agricultural crops under climate change scenarios to understand future crop damage better. In this study, we first explored the relationship between extreme rainfall and damaged paddy area for a historical period, and then focused on the quantitative analysis of flood impact on rice crops under climate change using MRI-AGCM3.2S climate model outputs for the past (1979–2002) and future (2075–2098) climate periods for the Solo River basin in Indonesia. We developed a quantitative damage assessment method by coupling water and energy budget-based rainfall-runoff-inundation model outputs and a flood loss model. Flood damage to rice crops was defined as a function of flood depth and duration, and depth-duration-damage curves were applied to quantify the damage. The results show that flood damage to rice crops will be more severe in the future than in the past, and the findings can be useful in establishing risk reduction and adaptation measures.