Productioon uncertainties modelling by Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling

Abstract

Analysis by modelling production throughput is an efficient way to provide information for production decision-making. Observation and investigation based on a real-life tile production line revealed that the five main uncertain variables are demand rate, breakdown time, scrap rate, setup time, and lead time. The volatile nature of these random variables was observed over a specific period of 104 weeks. The processes were sequential and multi-stage. These five uncertain variables of production were modelled to reflect the performance of overall production by applying Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. The application of Bayesian inference for handling production uncertainties showed a robust model with 2.5 per cent mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended to consider the five main uncertain variables that are introduced in this study for production decision-making. The study proposes the use of Bayesian inference for superior accuracy in production decision-making.

Keywords

• uncertainty
• throughput
• Bayesian