Modeling of Diversification of Market as a Basis for Sustainable Economic Growth

Abstract

The article considers the issue of dependence of key macroeconomic indicators on the energy supply price dynamics, especially oil price, relevant to the modern Russian economy. In order to overcome the negative trends related to oil price dynamics, the authors propose to consider the measures on the gradual diversification of the Russian economy as an effective tool of state regulation. To test the hypothesis that diversification contributes to the increase in sustainability of the national economic system, the authors review the simultaneous equations model, the endogenous variables of which include structural values which reflect the structure of national production system. The share of gross value added (hereinafter, GVA) generated in the i-th sector in the total GVA and the base GVA index generated in the i-th sector similar to the industry output index sequentially serve as endogenous variables in this study. The test of the hypothesis was carried out in two stages: at the first stage, according to the results of econometric modeling, the indicator of the real effective ruble exchange rate to foreign currencies was chosen as the main exogenous variable; at the second stage, the basic system of equations was evaluated. Econometric calculations have been made for the following types of economic activity (according to the classification of the Russian National Classifier of Economic Activities): agriculture, hunting and forestry; mineral extraction; manufacturing; wholesale and retail trade; repairs of motor vehicles, motorcycles, household goods and personal appliances. During the econometric modeling, co-integrated equations for the pairs of indicators under study have been obtained; it has also been concluded that there are significant disparities in the selected economic sectors. The analysis of the obtained data has helped develop a set of measures of state regulation aimed at overcoming the existing disparities

Keywords

• diversification; export oil price dynamics; econometric modeling; Granger causality test; co-integration; gross value added; real effective ruble exchange rate; state regulation