Analysing and forecasting trends in the apple production in Serbia

Abstract

This paper examines quantitative changes in the capacity and actual volume of the Serbian apple production in the period 1980-2016. On the basis of the analysis, forecast and comparison performed, the condition and development prospects of the Serbian apple production were assessed. An analysis of the production parameters observed was based on descriptive statistics, whereas ARIMA models were employed for forecast purposes. Based on the forecast values obtained, increasing trends in the parameters observed are expected in the forecast period. At the end of the forecast period, the total number of productive apple trees will approximate to 25 million, whereas the expected volume of apple production will approximate to 340,000 tones.

Keywords

• apple
• production
• condition analysis
• forecast
• serbia