The Value of Agricultural Areas: An Estimation Model of the Area to the Southeast of the City of Bari

Abstract

The role of agricultural activities in countries with mature economies suggests, on the one hand, the traditional role of producing foodstuffs and dietary fibers; on the other, it speaks to the offering of landscape, cultural, recreational, and environmental services. The member states of the European Union have for some time derogated the control of agricultural processes to EU decision-making, within an overarching vision that recalls both roles of this primary activity. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine military crisis have heightened the urgency to protect national agricultural production and guarantee minimum levels of agricultural provisions. In Italy, this orientation clashes with practices of unauthorized construction, favored by policies of “building amnesties”, and the pressure exercised on urban growth that, particularly in fringe areas, modifies the mercantile nature of agricultural lands. This paper examines the theme in operative terms, analyzing an urban fringe in the city of Bari. The use of multiple regression analysis, applied to the agricultural land market, evidenced how prices in these areas are clearly impacted by their potential transformation into buildable terrains, even when urban plans do not foresee this use.

Keywords

• agricultural land market
• urban fringe areas
• multiple regression model