Integrating Climatic and Physical Information in a Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Extreme Daily Precipitation

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are often localized, difficult to predict, and available records are often sparse. Improving frequency analysis and describing the associated uncertainty are essential for regional hazard preparedness and infrastructure design. Our primary goal is to evaluate incorporating Bayesian model averaging (BMA) within a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model framework (BHM). We compare results from two distinct regions in Oregon with different dominating rainfall generation mechanisms, and a region of overlap. We consider several Bayesian hierarchical models from relatively simple (location covariates only) to rather complex (location, elevation, and monthly mean climatic variables). We assess model predictive performance and selection through the application of leave-one-out cross-validation; however, other model assessment methods were also considered. We additionally conduct a comprehensive assessment of the posterior inclusion probability of covariates provided by the BMA portion of the model and the contribution of the spatial random effects term, which together characterize the pointwise spatial variation of each model’s generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters within a BHM framework. Results indicate that while using BMA may improve analysis of extremes, model selection remains an important component of tuning model performance. The most complex model containing geographic and information was among the top performing models in western Oregon (with relatively wetter climate), while it performed among the worst in the eastern Oregon (with relatively drier climate). Based on our results from the region of overlap, site-specific predictive performance improves when the site and the model have a similar annual maxima climatology—winter storm dominated versus summer convective storm dominated. The results also indicate that regions with greater temperature variability may benefit from the inclusion of temperature information as a covariate. Overall, our results show that the BHM framework with BMA improves spatial analysis of extremes, especially when relevant (physical and/or climatic) covariates are used.

Keywords

• extreme events
• precipitation
• spatial modeling
• Bayesian hierarchical modeling
• Bayesian model averaging