Une approche prospective de la configuration des disparités économiques régionales au sein de l'Union européenne par la modélisation et la simulation

Abstract

The aim of this article is to replace the question of the last two enlargements in the debate on the future of the cohesion policy. The interest is to estimate the process of the spatial expression of the convergence and the regional growth in the EU. The spatial statistics and the platform of simulation Geocells will allow us to analyze the evolution of the GDP/hab. in the EU 27, the spatial configurations of the regional growth and the impacts of the diverse helps granted in conformity to the criteria of the cohesion policy. In an European Union counting henceforth 27 members, a reflection will be led on the budgetary efforts of redistribution of the European regional policy. In this frame, a prospective approach will present three scenarios of spatial economic development of the European Union putting the dilemma between equity and competitiveness.

Keywords

• spatial autocorrelation
• cellular automata
• simulation
• cohesion policy
• convergence
• spatial interaction