Gustavo Petro y el triunfo de la izquierda en Colombia: análisis de las preferencias de voto en la primera vuelta presidencial de 2022

Abstract

Objective/context: In this article, we explore the determinants of voter preference for Gustavo Petro in the first round of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia. Methodology: Using a series of quantitative tools, we explore the variables associated with a preference for Gustavo Petro. We establish two groups of variables: personal and contextual, and preferences on economic and social issues (issues), and establish their relative weight as determinants of the closeness between Petro and his voters. Conclusions: We found that voters chose candidate Petro based on the satisfaction of their most important preferences, particularly regarding economic issues, and downplayed their differences with the candidate on issues related to individual liberties. Originality: This work presents original data collected during the 2022 presidential campaign and uses a combination of quantitative tools to estimate the determinants of preferences for Petro.

Keywords

• colombia
• elections
• electoral preferences
• gustavo petro