Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study

Zhiqi Zeng; Tong Wu; Zhijie Lin; Lei Luo; Zhengshi Lin; Wenda Guan; Jingyi Liang; Minfei Yu; Peikun Guan; Wei He; Zige Liu; Guibin Lu; Peifang Xie; Canxiong Chen; Eric H. Y. Lau; Zifeng Yang; Chitin Hon; Jianxing He

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7

Scientific Reports (Dec 2022)

Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study

Zhiqi Zeng,
Tong Wu,
Zhijie Lin,
Lei Luo,
Zhengshi Lin,
Wenda Guan,
Jingyi Liang,
Minfei Yu,
Peikun Guan,
Wei He,
Zige Liu,
Guibin Lu,
Peifang Xie,
Canxiong Chen,
Eric H. Y. Lau,
Zifeng Yang,
Chitin Hon,
Jianxing He

Affiliations

Zhiqi Zeng: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Tong Wu: Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology
Zhijie Lin: Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology
Lei Luo: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhengshi Lin: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Wenda Guan: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Jingyi Liang: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Minfei Yu: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Peikun Guan: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Wei He: Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology
Zige Liu: Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology
Guibin Lu: Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology
Peifang Xie: Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology
Canxiong Chen: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Eric H. Y. Lau: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Zifeng Yang: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Chitin Hon: Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology
Jianxing He: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 14

Abstract

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Abstract China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (R t ) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.

Published in Scientific Reports

ISSN: 2045-2322 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine; Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/srep/

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