Jump Driven Risk Model Performance in Cryptocurrency Market

Abstract

This paper aims at identifying a validated risk model for the cryptocurrency market. We propose a stochastic volatility model with co-jumps in return and volatility (SVCJ) to highlight the role of jumps in returns and volatility in affecting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) in cryptocurrency market. Validation results based on backtesting show that SVCJ model is superior in terms of statistical accuracy of VaR and ES estimates, compared to alternative models such as TGARCH (Threshold GARCH) volatility and RiskMetrics models. The results imply that for the cryptocurrency market, the best performing model is a stochastic process that accounts for both jumps in returns and volatility.

Keywords

• stochastic volatility with co-jumps
• threshold GARCH
• RiskMetrics
• validation
• cryptocurrency market