Efficiency Evaluation of Financial variables and Economic variables in Financial Distress Prediction Models in Tehran Stock Exchange

Abstract

Changeable economic conditions and intense fluctuations in business environment are provided stakeholders to make decision under material uncertainty. In this case, using some models to predict financial performance (financial health or distress) by identifying effective variables or indexes is very important. This paper determines whether a model utilizes a number of economic and financial variables (such as cash flow ratios and the other financial ratios) which can be useful to predict the financial distress. In this study four prediction models like Wallace, Springate, Shirata, & Thai da are developed with cash flow ratios & economic variables with lag1 and lag2 which are tested by logistic regression .Then they are compared to determine the better prediction ability. Based on the findings, it is claimed that Wallace, Springate developed models with cash flow ratios &economic variables they have some efficient variables to predict financial distress or failure.

Keywords

• Economic Variables
• Financial Distress Predicting Models
• Financial Variables
• Logistic analysis