Towards an Urban Planning Scenario Model System—A Tool for Exploring Urban Uncertainty: A Case Study of Diaozhen, China

Abstract

The ‘Urban Interaction’ project aims to develop an urban planning model system at the scale of towns or small cities consisting of three modules: growth forecast, land-use decision, and evaluation. This paper presents the framework of the model system to identify and discuss the assumptions and theoretical basis of the model system. The model system will be driven by scenario planning theory and sustainable urban development principles. It will export land-use planning based on selected urban development scenarios and urban planning theories. This paper takes Diao Town in Jinan as an example. Applying GIS spatial analysis and hierarchical analysis, this paper determines the suitability of land use and the weights of different influencing factors, combined with the land-use conflict identification model, for land-use decision-making. Finally, the assessment module verifies whether the planning scheme complies with laws and regulations to achieve an active, reactive response to uncertainty. The paper discusses the ‘uncertainty’ of urban planning and proposes a creative, flexible, and timely planning platform that allows planners and other participants to model and visualize their scenarios.

Keywords

• urban interaction
• urban model
• urban uncertainty
• scenario planning