A predictive model for colorectal cancer complicated with intestinal obstruction based on specific inflammation score

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Inflammatory factors play an important role in the onset and progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to develop and validate a novel scoring system that utilizes specific inflammatory factor indicators to predict intestinal obstruction in CRC patients. Methods This study conducted a retrospective analysis of 1,470 CRC patients who underwent surgical resection between January 2013 and July 2018. These patients were randomly allocated to the training group (n = 1060) and the validation group (n = 410). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictive factors for intestinal obstruction. The CRC peculiar inflammation score (CPIS), comprising lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), prognostic nutrition index (PNI), and alanine transaminase-to-lymphocyte ratio index (ALRI) scores, was significantly associated with the occurrence of intestinal obstruction. A nomogram combining CPIS with other clinical features was developed to predict this occurrence. Model accuracy was assessed by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results The CPIS generated by multi-factor logistic regression was as follows: − 1.576 × LMR − 0.067 × PNI + 0.018 × ALRI. Using CPIS cutoff values of 50% (− 7.188) and 85% (− 6.144), three predictive groups were established. Patients with a high CPIS had a significantly higher risk of intestinal obstruction than those with a low CPIS (odds ratio [OR]: 10.0, confidence interval [CI]: 5.85–17.08, P < 0.001). The predictive nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination abilities. The AUC of the ROC curve for the obstruction nomogram was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.777–0.850) in the training set and 0.806 (95% CI: 0.752–0.860) in the validation set. The calibration curve exhibited neither bias nor high credibility. Decision curve analysis indicated the utility of this predictive model. Conclusion CRC-associated intestinal obstruction is closely linked to inflammatory markers in patients. CPIS is a CRC-specific inflammatory predictive score based on a combination of inflammatory-related indicators. A high CPIS serves as a strong indicator of intestinal obstruction. Its integration with other clinical factors and preoperative inflammatory-specific indicators significantly enhances the diagnosis and treatment of CRC patients with intestinal obstruction.

Keywords

• Colorectal cancer
• Obstruction
• Inflammation
• Specific inflammation score
• Prediction model