Changes to Land Area Used for Grain Maize Production in Central Europe due to Predicted Climate Change

Abstract

Regional biogeographical models are considered to be important tools for supporting decisions relating to sustainable agricultural planning for climate change. These models are useful for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on individual crop species due to their sensitivity to regional ecological conditions. This paper deals with the application of a regional biogeographical model in order to predict the impact of climate change on growing conditions for grain maize in Central Europe. The model is based on a detailed knowledge of the relationships between the climatic characteristics of vegetation zones in landscapes with ecological growing conditions suitable for grain maize in the region under study. The results gained from using the model indicate a substantial increase in the total area suitable for growing of grain maize in the study region. By 2070, this area is expected to be triple the size it is today. Special maps are used to visualize prediction scenarios in order to support decision-making in regional planning in the study region, where grain maize is an important agricultural crop. This biogeographical model can be used in other European regions, where basic data related to vegetation zones are available.