Physics-based modeling of climate change impact on hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards

Abstract

Abstract Coastal erosion is an adverse impact of extreme water levels during major hurricanes. A warmer climate is expected to increase storm surge and wave hazards due to hurricane climatology change (HCC) and sea level rise (SLR). We conduct physics-based morphodynamic modeling to quantify the regional impacts of HCC and SLR on erosion hazards to sandy beaches and dunes along the barrier islands of New Jersey in the United States. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find a substantial increase in erosion hazards from the late-20th-century to late-21st-century. The regionally averaged 100-year eroded volume of beach-dune systems would increase by 58 and 84%, respectively, under the HCC and HCC + SLR scenarios. Our projections show a large spatial variability in future changes to erosion hazards, suggesting that, in addition to HCC and SLR, the morphological characteristics of beach-dune systems play an important role in the impacts of climate change on coastal erosion.